13 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MW
🇵🇱Michal Wolny
ELO 1465
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pyrek
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Pyrek
ELO 1494
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Pyrek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.18· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.