13 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GW
🇵🇱Grzegorz Wichowski
ELO 1587
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skotniczny
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1593
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Skotniczny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H41-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.