13 Jul · 10:05 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1653
FormLWWWL
68%Win chancemodel fair 1.47Poliniewicz
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1483
FormLWLLL
68%
32%
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 68% · 1.47vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 51%Total ~78 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
25%
3-2
17%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+170
H2H39-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+170)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (39-16)