13 Jul · 09:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1576
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Oracz
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1597
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H9-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.