13 Jul · 10:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MW
🇵🇱Michal Wolny
ELO 1450
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Michalik
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1485
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H18-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.