13 Jul · 11:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GW
🇵🇱Grzegorz Wichowski
ELO 1586
FormLWLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Wichowski
LB
🇵🇱Lukasz Bernacki
ELO 1505
FormLWLWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Wichowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~80 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+81
H2H6-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-5)