13 Jul · 12:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1398
FormLLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sobel
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1482
FormLLWLL
41%
59%
🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 78% (18)
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 67% · 1.50· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+84
H2H13-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-8)