13 Jul · 12:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1558
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jarocki
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1583
FormLLLLL
47%
53%
🌟Wisniewski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (58)
Fair odds · Jarocki
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H53-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.