13 Jul · 20:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇵🇱Pawel Chojnacki
ELO 1357
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Malcher
KM
🇵🇱Krzysztof Malcher
ELO 1373
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Malcher
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.