14 Jul · 01:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1511
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kostepski
RK
🇵🇱Robert Kostepski
ELO 1518
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Schaniel🌟Schaniel goes over total as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Kostepski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H21-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.