14 Jul · 03:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1453
FormWLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kostepski
RK
🇵🇱Robert Kostepski
ELO 1519
FormLWLLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Kostepski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H33-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-20)