14 Jul · 03:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1372
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kotyl
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1333
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 70% (20)
Fair odds · Kotyl
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H95-75
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.