14 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1488
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Baron
GJ
🇵🇱Grzegorz Jurowicz
ELO 1449
FormWWLWL
54%
46%
🌟Baron goes over total as favourite 70% (40)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H7-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.