14 Jul · 12:40 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
BM
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1350
FormWLWWL
64%Win chancemodel fair 1.56Pelka
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1482
FormLWWWL
36%
64%
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 64% · 1.56vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~80 pts
1-3
25%
0-3
23%
2-3
16%
3-1
14%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+132
H2H10-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+132)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-6)