14 Jul · 14:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
BM
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1345
FormLWLWW
66%Win chancemodel fair 1.52Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1493
FormWLWWL
34%
66%
🌟Baron goes over total as favourite 70% (40)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 66% · 1.52vsMarket 62% · 1.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~78 pts
1-3
26%
0-3
24%
2-3
16%
3-1
13%
3-2
12%
Elo Gap+148
H2H5-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+148)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-0)