14 Jul · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MR
🇵🇱Maksymilian Rus
ELO 1307
FormLLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Madej
BM
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1350
FormWLWLW
45%
55%
🌟Rus rarely covers set handicap as underdog 38% (16)
Fair odds · Madej
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~81 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H19-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-14)