14 Jul · 17:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GJ
🇵🇱Grzegorz Jurowicz
ELO 1440
FormLWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Pelka
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1496
FormWLWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+56
H2H20-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-19)