14 Jul · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1369
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1389
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kowalczyk🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H29-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.