14 Jul · 18:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1592
FormWWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Koczyba
KJ
🇵🇱Krzysztof Juszczyk
ELO 1535
FormWWLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H34-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (34-18)