14 Jul · 18:40 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
BM
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1348
FormLWLWL
66%Win chancemodel fair 1.52Pelka
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1496
FormWLWWL
34%
66%
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 66% · 1.52vsMarket 68% · 1.47· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~80 pts
1-3
26%
0-3
24%
2-3
16%
3-1
13%
3-2
12%
Elo Gap+148
H2H11-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+148)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-6)