14 Jul · 18:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1460
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wrzalik
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1484
FormWLWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Wrzalik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H27-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.