14 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1452
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Durak
KD
🇵🇱Kamil Durak
ELO 1491
FormL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Durak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.