14 Jul · 20:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇵🇱Dariusz Szlubowski
ELO 1455
FormLWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Szlubowski
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1389
FormWWLWW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Szlubowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H11-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-1)