14 Jul · 20:00 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1453
FormLLWWL
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Kaczynski
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1563
FormLWWLW
38%
62%
Fair odds · Kaczynski
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~76 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
23%
2-3
15%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+110
H2H14-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+110)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-8)