14 Jul · 19:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1500
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Juszczyk
KJ
🇵🇱Krzysztof Juszczyk
ELO 1535
FormWWLLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Juszczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H13-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.