14 Jul · 19:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1538
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1575
FormWWLWW
46%
54%
🌟Nocun stays under total as favourite 70% (30)
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H30-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.