14 Jul · 19:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1563
FormLWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kaczynski
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1485
FormLLLWL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Kaczynski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)