14 Jul · 20:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1500
FormWWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kaczynski
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1552
FormLLWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Kaczynski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 65% · 1.53· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H11-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-4)