14 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1323
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1357
FormLLLLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H26-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.