14 Jul · 21:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1540
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skorupa
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Pyrek
ELO 1513
FormWWWWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Skorupa
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.