15 Jul · 02:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1361
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1369
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H20-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.