15 Jul · 02:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1463
FormWWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1538
FormLWWWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+75
H2H20-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-12)