15 Jul · 02:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1527
FormLWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Brunner
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1529
FormLLWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Brunner
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H6-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.