15 Jul · 04:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1474
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wrzalik
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1463
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Wrzalik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H28-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.