15 Jul · 03:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1538
FormLWWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Szymik
RS
🇵🇱Robert Szymik
ELO 1540
FormWLWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Szymik
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.