15 Jul · 03:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1529
FormLLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1585
FormWWWWL
44%
56%
🌟Nocun stays under total as favourite 70% (30)
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+56
H2H30-21
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-21)