15 Jul · 04:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1508
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pyrek
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Pyrek
ELO 1517
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Pyrek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 37% · 2.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H18-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.