15 Jul · 04:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1503
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1533
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H11-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.