15 Jul · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SS
🇵🇱Szymon Sporek
ELO 1698
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sporek
DP
🇵🇱Dmitrij Prokopcov
ELO 1689
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🌟Sporek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (57)
Fair odds · Sporek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.09· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.