15 Jul · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1553
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Adamus
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1568
FormWWLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H15-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.