15 Jul · 21:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SS
🇵🇱Szymon Sporek
ELO 1691
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Daniel
AD
🇵🇱Artur Daniel
ELO 1719
FormWLWLW
47%
53%
🌟Sporek goes over total as underdog 68% (41)
Fair odds · Daniel
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H14-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.