15 Jul · 20:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SS
🇵🇱Szymon Sporek
ELO 1691
FormLLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sporek
KS
🇵🇱Konrad Staszczyk
ELO 1611
FormWLWWL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Staszczyk🌟Staszczyk covers set handicap as underdog 73% (15)
Fair odds · Sporek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+80
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)