15 Jul · 18:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1425
FormWWLLL
72%Win chancemodel fair 1.39Fomin
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1638
FormLLLWW
28%
72%
🌟Fomin goes over total as favourite 65% (34)
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 72% · 1.39vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~75 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+213
H2H13-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+213)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-3)