15 Jul · 18:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Konrad Staszczyk
ELO 1611
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Staszczyk
LP
🇵🇱Lukasz Pietraszko
ELO 1604
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Staszczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.