15 Jul · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PJ
🇵🇱Patryk Jendrzejewski
ELO 1652
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sporek
SS
🇵🇱Szymon Sporek
ELO 1691
FormLLWLL
46%
54%
🌟Sporek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (57)
Fair odds · Sporek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.