15 Jul · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1522
FormLLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Smolka
SJ
🇵🇱Sebastian Juzek
ELO 1438
FormLWLWW
59%
41%
🌟Juzek rarely covers set handicap as underdog 33% (15)
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+84
H2H39-30
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (39-30)