15 Jul · 16:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1485
FormWLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Adamus
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1566
FormWLWWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+81
H2H46-51
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)