15 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1389
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Trela
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1357
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🌟Kowalczyk covers set handicap as underdog 70% (37)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H16-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.