16 Jul · 21:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
JD
🇵🇱Jerzy Debski
ELO 1336
FormLLLWL
84%Win chancemodel fair 1.19Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1717
FormWWWWW
16%
84%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (28)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 84% · 1.19vsMarket 83% · 1.21· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 72%Total ~71 pts
0-3
42%
1-3
30%
2-3
13%
3-2
7%
3-1
5%
Elo Gap+381
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+381)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)