15 Jul · 19:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1394
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Trela
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1365
FormLWLWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Trela
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H58-67
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.